Updated: Jun 27, 2020
The krona, the worst-performing major currency this year, faces volatility on Swedish inflation data Tuesday as markets may be underestimating the risk for a surprise. The Euro is not too far behind sitting at - 31.
January is the month of the year with the most volatile inflation data, according to SEB AB, yet a gauge of one-week price swings in the euro-krona exchange rate suggests traders are relatively complacent.
The Krona has been destroyed this year because of their central bank's plan to hike interest-rates in second half of the year is receiving skepticism. Inflation is one of the biggest drivers for the Krona among swedish data and events.
January data has the most clear bias for downside surprises in headline inflation, at 71 percent of the time over the past seven years, SEB said. Swedish consumer prices are forecast to have dropped 0.7 percent in January on a monthly basis, from a 0.4 percent rise in December, as many stores cut prices after Christmas holidays. Inflation is forecast at 2.2 percent in annual terms, versus 2.0 percent in December.
What does this mean for traders?
With so much uncertainty and negative outlooks for Swedish Krona minimising your positions and scaling out. Short Bias.