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Fundamental Overview (21/03/2019)


LogicStrategy Scores (08/03/2019) NOT UP TO DATE

PLEASE NOTE THE SCORES ABOVE ARE NOT TO DATE.

It is just an example of what trader and professional members get access to.

Australia

Australia Employment Change measures a change in the number of officially employed Australians in the reported month. Employment growth is a sign of a stronger labor market and can be seen as positive for the Australian dollar. The forecast result for AUD employment change was an increase in people in work by 32,900. This was heavily underestimated by economist's forecasts. What we should expect is weakness in the Australian Economy.

Reduced Employment:

  • Less people with disposable income to spend in the economy (less consumption)

  • Less business investment because companies aren't hiring as many people

  • Potentially reduction in production as labor is required to produce

Although unemployment rate expectation was close to forecast the real number of employed people was significantly lower and we can possibly see a slowdown in AUD over the coming week.


All of these factors affect GDP and the demand for the Australian Dollar. This therefore is negative for AUD. Our professional and trader members get access to simplified fundamental analysis. Forex traders can take advantage on this and start to add to their bias for AUD.


Canada


Wholesale Trade measures the change in the total value of sales at the wholesale level. It is a leading indicator of consumer spending. It is a leading indicator of consumer inflation in the country. The indicator growth may affect CAD demand positively. As we can see from the data wholesale trade has grown a significant amount 0.2% more than expectations. The statistics are showing strength for CAD which suggests consumers are spending more in the economy and thus possibly increasing GDP.


United Kingdom


Retail Sales m/m show the changes in the value of retail goods sold in the UK for the given month compared to the previous one. The calculation uses season-adjusted data from British retailers.The indicator is used in forecasting, budgeting and in the development of the UK financial and economic policy. The retail sales growth can affect the British pound quotes positively.


Retail Sales y/y show changes in the value of retail goods sold in the UK during the given month compared to the same month of the previous year. The calculation uses season-adjusted data from British retailers. The indicator is used in forecasting, budgeting and in the development of the UK financial and economic policy. The retail sales growth can affect the British pound quotes positively.


Core Retail Sales m/m show changes in retail sales in the given month compared to the previous month. The index calculation does not include auto sales and fuel, which tend to be very volatile. It is an indicator of consumers spending that allows estimating the inflation level. The growth of the index can be seen as positive for the pound sterling.


Core Retail Sales y/y show changes in retail sales in the given month compared to the same month of the previous year. The index calculation does not include auto sales and fuel, which tend to be very volatile. It is an indicator of consumers spending that allows estimating inflation and economic activity. The growth of the index can be seen as positive for the pound sterling.


Overall, we can see a positive change in all of the scheduled news mentioned above which all have a direct impact upon the GBP demand. What we can expect is an increase in demand for GBP as consumers are paying more for goods than last month and last year.


Please note however because of the Brexit uncertainty there is much more volatility in GBP pairs.


Japan


CPI y/y reflects changes in prices of goods and services purchased by households in Japan. The index estimates price changes from the perspective of the consumer, in the given month compared to the same month of the previous year. The calculation includes goods and services characterizing household spending, it does not include taxes and social payments.

The index is used to measure the country's inflation. The index growth can have a positive effect on yen quotes.


CPI ex Food & Energy y/y measures changes in prices of goods and services purchased by households in Japan. The index estimates price changes from the perspective of the consumer, in the given month compared to the same month of the previous year. The calculation includes goods and services characterizing household spending, it does not include taxes and social payments. Food and energy prices are excluded from the indicator due to their high volatility. The index is used to measure the country's inflation and economic development. The index growth can have a positive effect on yen quotes.

Core CPI y/y reflects changes in prices of goods and services purchased by households in Japan. The index estimates price changes from the perspective of the consumer, in the given month compared to the same month of the previous year. The calculation includes goods and services characterizing household spending, it does not include taxes and social payments. Food prices are excluded from the indicator due to their high volatility. The index is used to measure the country's inflation. The index growth can have a positive effect on yen quotes.


At first glance we may think that because CPI outcome was just under forecast growing at 0.2% then it would negatively impact JPY. However, if we also take a look at CPI ex Food & Energy we can clearly see a strong push in price of goods and services purchased in Japan. This is because Food and energy is a volatile indicator, so the overall outcome is actually bullish.


On top of this good news the Core CPI was also much greater than last years result showing a positive long term trend in the price of goods in Japan. This healthy news suggests adding a bullish outlook for JPY in the coming month.

United States

Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index displays the relative business conditions in the Philadelphia Fed region (Eastern Pennsylvania, New Jersey and Delaware) every month. The calculation is based on the survey of 250 manufacturers. The survey participants evaluate employment, working hours, new and current orders, shipments, inventories, delivery times, as well as paid and requested prices. A positive value indicates the growth of the industrial sector in the region. A negative value notifies of worsening conditions. The growth of the indicator value can have a positive effect on the US dollar. In this case there was positive growth in Philadelphia for the US.


Philadelphia Fed Employment Index reflects labor market conditions in the Philadelphia Federal Reserve zone. This region includes Pennsylvania, New Jersey and Delaware, i.e. states with high economic activity. The index provides an indirect outlook of the economic development of the entire country.The index is included in the overall Philadelphia Fed business activity index. Readings above zero indicate an improvement in employment during the reported month, and vice versa. The indicator growth can have a positive effect on dollar quotes. This shows that employment index is still above 0 and growing but it was much less than forecast.

Initial Jobless Claims show the number of people filing to receive unemployment insurance benefits for the first time over the past week. The indicator is used to assess the state of the labor market. Since the weekly flow of data causes high volatility, the four-week average values are used most often for interpretation. The indicator growth can have a negative effect on US dollar quotes.


We can see from the jobless claims that 1000 more people are claiming unemployment credit suggesting that there's difficulty in employment and business investment in the US.


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